Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Spain credit downgraded to near junk

By Daniel U. Alvarez

Las Cruces, NM (MercadAnalytic).  Thursday morning’s market opening is quickly turning into and interesting reminder of the interrelationship of the USD with the EURO.  The S&P’s rating agency downgraded Spanish credit to “near junk, shortly after market closing. The immediate impact of today’s announcement was the U.S. Dollar’s sudden jump from 80.00 to 80.26.














S&P provides the following reasons for the downgrade:
The deepening economic recession is limiting the Spanish government's
policy options.
Rising unemployment and spending constraints are likely to intensify
social discontent and contribute to friction between Spain's central and
regional governments.
Doubts over some eurozone governments' commitment to mutualizing the
costs of Spain's bank recapitalization are, in our view, a destabilizing
factor for the country's credit outlook.
We are therefore lowering our long- and short-term sovereign credit
ratings on Spain to 'BBB-/A-3' from 'BBB+/A-2'.
The negative outlook on the long-term rating reflects our view of the
significant risks to Spain's economic growth and budgetary performance,
and the lack of a clear direction in eurozone policy.

Stay tuned.  This is certainly turning into an interesting start.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

The Conundrum of Pension Plan Accounting

By Daniel U. Alvarez

Las Cruces, NM (MercadAnalytic).  In the past few years pension accounting has taken a much more visible role in governmental accounting as state and local governments begin to take notice of potential insolvency concerns of their pension funds.  At the extreme, in cities such as Scranton, PA ., and Stockton, CA . which recently filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy, pension insolvency is now a reality.  The conundrum for many state and local governments regarding their pension accounts is determining proper allocation and funding levels to ensure financial sustainability and solvency.

One of the most important aspects regarding pension fund accounting is that they fall under the special fund accounts called fiduciary accounts .  A pension fund is a trust fund and receives certain statutory and regulatory protection.

There are essentially two different types of pension plans that state and local governments participate in: 1) defined contribution plans and 2) defined benefits plan.  Currently, the latter type of pension plan is much more common, but is quickly losing its popularity due to the increasing risk and liability that many state and local governments are experiencing.  According to the GAO (2012), approximately 78 percent of all state and local governments participated in defined benefit plans and only 18 percent of private sector companies offered this type of pension plan to their employees (p. 5).

Perhaps the most distinctive feature between these two plans is how and by whom risk is assumed.  In a defined benefit plan the employer assumes all the investment risk while in a defined contribution plan the employee assumes the risk.  Table 1 provides a comparison between these two pension plans.

Defined benefit pension plans are sometimes referred to as formula plans.  States and local government use different calculations to determine benefits.    For example, in a nutshell, in a top of the line defined benefit pension plan “the Cadillac plan”, a typical formula is 2 percent times years of service times the average salary for the best five years of service.

Since most state and local governments use defined benefits plans, the focus of this report is to gain an appreciation on the complexities, deficiencies of past and new reporting requirements.
Background  

In 1986 the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) (as cited in GAO-08-223, 2008), required state and local governments to their unfunded pension liabilities according to the Financial accounting standard 87 (FAS 87), Employers’ Accounting for Pensions.        

Before the economic downturn of 2008, pension accounting was not as commonly discussed as it is today.  The economic downturn of 2008 served as a wake-up call, a more importantly a call-for-action, by many state and local government accountants, managers, and politicians that quickly began to realize how the impact of external market forces can affect the financial solvency of their pension funds.  The standard-setters also began to seriously look into the reliability of the reporting requirements for pension plans.  At its core, according to the FASB (as cited in James, 2009), the “main purpose of financial accounting and reporting is to provide information that is useful to decision makers”.  Furthermore, this information is considered useful, “if it is reliable, relevant, consistent, and comparable”.  The crux of this report is to provide an assessment of the reliability of the current reporting requirements and standards.
The Stakeholders

Directly or indirectly pension accounting impacts every American.  According to Biggs (2012, July 18), pension plans affect government workers, elected officials, and taxpayers.  Interestingly, as long as the U.S. economy is performing well, Americans pay little attention to pension accounting or on their own personal pension funds.  However, after the economic downturn of 2008, when many American workers lost up to 40% of the value of their pension value, it became a major concern.

Another reason there is an increased level of interest in pension accounting, is because of the impressive amounts of money that are tied in these funds. Figure 1 shows the breakdown between state government at 41% and local governments at 59% or $35.5 billion and $56.6 billion respectively.
Pension Fund Evaluation

According to the GAO (as cited in Wilson, Reck, Kattelus, 2010), there are three key indicators used to evaluate the status of pension plans:
1) unfunded AAL ;
2) funded ratio ; and,
3) the difference between the annual required contribution and the amount actually contributed.

Perhaps the most common key comparisons used to show pension fund performance level funded ratio which is determined – unfunded/funded.  According to a GAO report (2008), a funding ratio of 80 percent is considered a healthy level and implies that “80 percent of the pension plan has enough assets to pay for 80 percent of all accrued liabilities” (p. 9). Figure 2 below illustrates the funded ratio trend from 1994 through 2006.  Interestingly, by 2006, fifty-eight percent of the sample state and local governments reported funded levels at or above 80 percent .  In contrast, in 2000 - 90% of state and local governments reported funded levels at or above 80 percent.   In a similar report by Munnell, Aubry, Hurwitz, Medeica, & Quinby (2012, May) (as cited in Biggs, 2012), by 2011 the average public pension funds dropped to approximately 75 percent versus the 103 percent levels of 2000.  The data is very clear that from fiscal year 2000 through 2011, unfunded levels have been trending up.
The Unfunded Pension Plan Angst

To fund - or not to fund - the unfunded portion of the pension plan…that is the question?  According to Apostolou, Apostolou, & Brooks (2011, May), “unfunded pension obligations appear to be a material component of the growing deficit problem” (p18).    According to Wilson, et al. (2010), the calculated annual pension costs are disclosed in the employer’s financial statement footnotes.  A state or local government determines its annual pension costs based on two inputs:  the annual required contribution (ARC)  and the net pension obligation (NPO) .  It is important to note that even though an ARC is determined to be a “required” amount to fund a pension plan, it does not necessarily mean that the state or local government will actually fund the pension plan with the ARC amount.  Typically, the ARC is different from the actual contribution that state and local governments make.  Figure 3 below provides the yearly trend  from 1994 to 2006 in the percentage of states and local government pension plans for which governments contributed more or less than 100 percent of the ARC, by Fiscal Year.  In 2006 slight more than 40 percent of the GAO sampled states and local governments were contributing less than 1000 of their ARC.

One of the most interesting findings of this research is that, not only does an economic downturn significantly increase unfunded levels, but as a result, this directly impacts the political decisions state and local government must make to allocate scarcer resources.  Another interesting finding is impact that hedge funds have on the financial statements.
Fair Value Measurements

According to FSP FAS 132(R)-1 (2008, December 30), there are three types of fair value measurements levels;  Level 1 - quoted prices in active markets for identical assets,  Level 2 - significant observable inputs, and Level 3 - significant unobservable inputs.  The most controversial are Level 3 which is very high risk derivatives.  In an economic downturn all investments will lose, but the biggest losers are the derivative instruments.  An important note to make is that in an economic downturn, where a pension fund portfolios lose, the unfunded portions is further exacerbated.  And is it the responsibility of the state and local government to replenish the higher unfunded portion?
 According to Apostolou et al. (2011), the future looks bleak for state pension plans and many states and local governments are headed towards a fiscal/budgetary cliff as “many have made pension commitments that appear to be unsustainable in the long run and will likely require drastic revenue increases and the elimination of, or severe reduction in, essential public services” (p. 21).
Alternatively, a GAO (2012) indicates that “despite the recent economic downturn, most large state and local government pension plans have sufficient assets to cover benefit payments…” (p. i).
The Road to Recovery

Obviously state and local governments have very little control over driving forces such as macro-economic conditions that cause economic downturns, but they do have control over certain fiscal policy tools they can employ to correct some of deficiencies with pension plans.

This report recommends two initiatives to improve the sustainability and solvency of state and local government pension funds:

1) Modify current employee pension plan formulas and establish key success factors.  Figure 4 shows three different types of strategies state and local governments are employing to improve the solvency of their pension plans: a) reduce benefits, b) increase member contributions, and/or c) switch to a hybrid approach. The illustration shows that 35 states reduced benefits in at least one of the following three categories: a) adjusted benefit formula, ) raised the age or increased service requirements, and c) reduced or eliminated postretirement increases.

2) Strengthen Level 3 hedge accounting reporting requirements. During an economic downturn, derivative investments take disproportionately higher hit on losses because of the higher-risk involved in these types of trade.  The obvious recommendation is to reduce these risky types of trades.  Another recommendation is to strengthen Level 3 hedge accounting standards to provide more timely and accurate information that useful to decision makers.  
Conclusions

The solvency and sustainability of pension plan funds are going to depend greatly on the decision state and local government officials make in the next few years.  It is obvious that every state and local government is different and is going to require different solutions to fix the problem.  External driving forces such as macro-economic conditions and changing demographics also play a key role towards the road to recovery.  The stakes are very high, and it is going to take an incredible amount of leadership, skill and discipline to ensure the sustainability and solvency of many state and local government pension plans.

        

Monday, December 19, 2011

Looking at entry points for ANF.

Did a quick comparison on various retail stocks.  ANF and AEO are very similar stocks.  I still like ANF because of its strong Balance Sheet and its robust inventory levels (32% higher than last year going into holiday sales).

Market  Cap  (Billions) Income  (Billions) Employees (Thousands) P/E EPS Profit Margin (percentage)
RL 12.53 0.659 24000 19.94 6.82 10.29
DDS 2.17 0.432 24564 5.59 7.71 6.74
KSS 12.2 1.21 29000 11.38 4.23 6.42
TJX 23.2 1.35 166000 17.73 3.47 5.92
M 12.83 1.18 166000 11.28 2.71 4.54
ANF 3.88 0.199 9000 20.33 2.22 5.02
AEO 2.76 0.187 6900 14.97 0.95 6.18
JCP 6.89 0.195 156000 42.47 0.76 1.11


Sunday, December 18, 2011

Monday, December 12, 2011

Ecopetrol S.A.: The Colombian potential

By Daniel U. Alvarez
PEREIRA, Colombia (MercadAnalytic) – Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE:EC) is the biggest corporation in Colombia and one of the top 40 oil companies in the world.  It is also one of the four major oil companies of Latin America and currently has a market capitalization of $85.74 billion.   
Not unlike most Latin American companies, Ecopetrol is structured as a Sociedad Anomina (S.A.) which is the equivalent to a U.S. corporation.  The Ecopetrol S.A. website indicates that it went public in 2007.  Ecopetrol S.A. owns the largest refinery in Colombia and most of the countries' oil pipe-line infrastructure.  Ecopetrol’s footprint is mainly in Colombia, but it also has operations in Peru, Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico.  
Ecopetrol’s financial and operational performance has been steadily improving since it became a public company.  Its third quarter production results for the nine-month period ending September 30, 2011 shows an 18.5% increase compared to the same period in 2010, and its third quarter production results for the three-month period shows a production growth rate of 15.7% compared to the third quarter 2010. 
Ecopetrol also posted the following nine-month period ending September 20, 2011 results:
Ÿ          --  revenues increased by 52.3%;
Ÿ           --  operating income increased by 94.6%;
Ÿ            -- EBITDA increased by 74.6%; and
Ÿ            -- net income increased by 96.6%.
Ecopetrol’s export sales increased from 363,000 to 513,000 barrels of crude and gas per day or 40%.  At the end of the third quarter, the company also indicates that the United States led the way as its biggest export recipient with 58.8% of its total exports.
Transportation capacity grew by 15% from 936,000 to 1,076,000 barrels per day.   
On November 21, 2011, Ecopetrol approved its 2012 – 2020 strategic investment plan “which includes a total of $8,477 million of which $7,452 is expected to be invested directly in Ecopetrol and $1.025 to be invested in other companies of the corporate group”.  The following shows the allocations by component:
Exploration -- $1,419 million.  The company plans to drill 42 exploratory wells of which 36 will be located in Colombia. 
Production -- $4,113 million.  Ecopetrol has established a 2012 production target of 750 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day which is 10.6% higher than the 2011 goal.
Refining, Petrochemicals and Biofuels -- $601 million.  This investment will primarily be used to improve operational requirements in its two refineries; Barrancabermeja and Cartagena.
Transportation -- $2,025 million.  The company aims to increase crude evacuation capacity by 600 thousand barrels a day in 2012.
Other investments -- $318 million.  This allocation will primarily be used for research and development and information technology and social responsible programs.
In the 2012 – 2020 strategic investment plan, the C.E.O. and President of Ecopetrol, Javier Gutierrez Pemberthy, states “our efforts are focused on fulfilling the goals we set forth for the years 2015 and 2020.  2012 is essential to make our vision as a corporate group a reality, which explains the importance of the approved investment plan [sic]”.      
Earlier this year two rating agencies raised the credit-worthiness of Ecopetrol.  On March 22, 2011, Standard & Poor raised Ecopetrol’s risk-rating from ‘BB+’ to ‘BBB-‘  and on June 23, 2011, Fitch raised its risk-rating from ‘BBB-‘ to ‘BBB’.  Both risk-rating agencies assigned Ecopetrol with a rating outlook as “stable”.
One of the concerns in investing in Colombia is security and government stability.  Under the previous Presidency of Alvaro Uribe Velez, the Colombian government made significant strides in establishing a safety and security for its citizens.  The Uribe government is also credited for strengthening democracy in Colombia.  The current government of Manuel Santos is following in Uribe’s footsteps and continues to make progress in transforming Colombia into a strong democratic government.  Within the last year key leaders of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) were eliminated.  A national program to re-integrate many of the FARC members in to society continues to show progress.     
Ecopetrol financials are solid.  Its current price/earnings ratio is $20.37 and its earnings per share is $2.08.  Its stock price has a 52 week range of $37.48 - $46.35 and closed at $42.35 on December 6, 2011. 
Disclosure:  We do not own Ecopetrol S.A. stock but are considering long-positions and are looking at entry points at around the $39 per share level.  



S&P threatens eurozone with widespread downgrades

By Daniel U. Alvarez
PEREIRA (MercadAnalytic)– Standard & Poor’s (S&P) ratings services last night threatened to downgrade the status of 15 of the 17 European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU or eurozone) members, adding pressure to get their sovereign debt problems fixed.
The risk-rating agency believes that “systematic stresses in the eurozone have risen in recent weeks to the extent that they now put downward pressure on the credit standing of the eurozone as a whole”.  The following “five interrelated” concerns are cited by the agency as contributing factors to the potential downgrade:
1)      Tightening credit conditions across the eurozone;
2)     Markedly higher risk premiums on a growing number of eurozone sovereigns, including some that are currently rated as ‘AAA’;
3)     Continuing disagreement among European policy makers on how to tackle the immediate market confidence crises and, long term, how to ensure greater economic, financial, fiscal convergence among eurozone members’
4)     High levels of government and household indebtedness across a large area of the eurozone; and
5)     The rising risk of economic recession in the eurozone as a whole in 2012.  Currently, we expect output to decline next year in countries such as Spain, Portugal and Greece, but we now assign a 40% probability of a fall in output for the eurozone as a whole.
Interestingly, the potential downgrade announcement came hard on the heels of: 1) Franco-German initiative announced early Monday by President Nicholas Sarkozy and Chancellor Angela Merkel to enforce budget discipline and 2) Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti’s, government austerity plan to cut $30 euros from its budget.  
Market reaction on Monday before the S&P announcement was well-received.  Late Monday, however, the markets began to give-up some the gains. 
Sarkozy, Merkel and Monti have a very difficult challenge ahead of them.  One of the measures proposed by the Franco-German initiative is to agree on “mandatory limits on budget deficits that eurozone members would have to adhere to, or risk possible sanctions”.  Monti’s austerity plan was approved by his cabinet on Sunday but still needs senate approval. Trade unions oppose the austerity measures and planned for protests later in the month.
Amazingly, the markets initially responded positively to the proposals, but nothing has been approved yet. 
Assessment
We believe ratification of the Franco-German proposal and the Italian austerity plan is going to be a major challenge to ratify.  In the end, pressure from the S&P and the United States may still not be enough for passage.  
Accordingly, we expect a higher U.S. dollar opening and equities to pull-back.  We still hold the following positions: $DOG, $RWM, $SDOW, and $FAZ.  On Tuesday and Wednesday we will be looking for exit points.  

Two head-lines don't make it a trend

By Daniel U. Alvarez
PEREIRA – Stock index futures added gains Friday morning after a positive U.S. jobs monthly report and the European Central Bank’s announcement that it is planning to lend the International Monetary Fund euros in an attempt to ease the euro zone debt crisis.  The European Union’s plan allows the European Community Bank to lend up to $270 billion euros and essentially use the IMF as a clearinghouse.  November U.S. payroll jobs climbed to 120,000 and the jobless rate falls to 8.6%.     
Assessment
Both of these head-line news stories are favorable for continued Friday morning stock market increases.  However, the European sovereign debt crisis is far from being fixed. Until European budget deficits are addressed, this fundamental macro-economic problem will continue to drag the markets in the long-term. 
Our strategy is to wait for the markets to culminate and look for sell-off points.  We don’t believe the head-line is sufficient to create a trend and are setting up our trades accordingly.  We are looking at entry points for the following ETFs: $DOG, $RWM, $SDOW, and $FAZ.